Employment Based and Family Based Visa Predictions 2025

Now that 2025 is in full swing, in this video, we will discuss our predictions for visa availability for employment-based and family-sponsored preference categories, based on historical patterns and statistical information from the past year.

If you are waiting for your priority date to become current on the Visa Bulletin and want to know when your immigrant visa might be issued, you won’t want to miss this video.

Overview

Each year, the availability of immigrant numbers for employment-based preference immigrants is calculated based on Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA).

For FY 2024, the annual numerical limit for family sponsored immigrant visas was 226,000. Of these visas, only about 170,000 visas were actually allocated and issued to family sponsored immigrants. Approximately 58,000 visas were left unused in fiscal year 2024 due to country specific backlogs and scheduling delays.

That leaves a substantial number of unused family visa numbers that can potentially be transferred to employment-based visas in fiscal year 2025.

It is important to note that for fiscal year 2024, the Department of State determined that the employment-based annual limit would be 160,791, due to unused family-sponsored visa numbers from fiscal year 2023 being added to the employment-based limit for fiscal year 2024.

Such visa numbers were allocated to employment-based applicants in fiscal year 2024 on a quarterly basis as follows:

Q1: 34,000 visas used

Q2: 31,850 visas used

Q3: 45,240 visas used

Q4: 50,000 visas used

In total, approximately 161,200 visa numbers were used in fiscal year 2024 alone.

Due to this trend, we predict that the employment-based annual limit for fiscal year 2025 will be higher than normal, due to unused family-sponsored visa numbers from fiscal year 2024 that will spillover and benefit employment-based applicants applying for green cards in 2025.

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has further indicated that it is dedicated to maximizing number use in the employment-based visa categories in fiscal year 2025, which ends on September 30, 2025.

What happens when the annual numerical limits are reached?

Once the numerical limit is reached for a given preference category, the category becomes unavailable and no further permanent resident cards (green cards) can be issued for the preference category for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Due to high levels of demand for visas, the spillover of unused numbers from family visas becomes critically important for employment based categories.

How did the Visa Bulletin move in the past year?

From October 2023 to October 2024, as a whole the preference categories moved about 8 months on average on the Visa Bulletin. Additionally, unused visa numbers from fiscal year 2023 rolled over to fiscal year 2024 allowing more applicants to receive their green cards.

Our prediction is that we could see an average movement of 10 months in the Visa Bulletin as we move into fiscal year 2025, and continuing spillover of unused visa numbers will positively impact number use.

For applicants lawfully residing inside the United States, USCIS is also maximizing number use for adjustment of status applicants, by reserving visa numbers from the Department of State once cases are deemed eligible for final action. This is positive news for employment-based applicants who are waiting for the adjudication of their green cards inside the United States.

Backlogs at the National Visa Center

For family sponsored applicants, backlogs continue to be a significant issue. The National Visa Center has over 300,000 cases warehoused at their facility still waiting to be scheduled for visa interviews at U.S. Consulates and Embassies worldwide.

In fiscal year 2025, we expect these backlogs to continue. On the bright side, we predict that there will be an overall faster advancement of the family preference categories on a quarterly basis in fiscal year 2025.

Predictions for Family Preference Categories

The most significant advancements we are likely to see for family sponsored applicants in the year ahead are the F2A category (spouses and unmarried children under 21 years of age of lawful permanent residents) and F3 category (married sons and daughters of U.S. Citizens).

For the F2A category there was an average advancement of 8-months in fiscal year 2024. We expect continued advancement for this category in fiscal year 2025. The wait time for spouses of green card holders will likely decrease in the year ahead due to unused visa numbers.

For the F3 category, we expect slight forward movement in fiscal year 2025.

We do not expect to see significant movement for F4 (brothers and sisters of U.S. Citizens) in the year ahead. The slow movement we have seen in fiscal year 2024 is likely to continue in 2025 due to the backlogs for this category.

Conclusion

In summary, we expect the upcoming movement in the Visa Bulletin to be very similar to the movement we saw in fiscal year 2024, based on historical patterns and statistical data. Unused visa numbers will continue to benefit both family-sponsored and employment-based green card applicants and number use will continue to be maximized by the Department of State and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

To learn more about the Visa Bulletin, please click here.

Contact Us. If you would like to schedule a consultation, please text 619-569-1768 or call 619-819-9204.

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